Opmerkelijke resultaten in gezamelijke Israëlisch-Palestijnse peiling omtrent Oud-Jeruzalem

kotel 1920Bidden aan de Klaagmuur (Kotel) in 1920. Valt de Klaagmuur binnenkort weer in Arabische moslimhanden? Dat staat wel te gebeuren als het van de overgrote meerderheid onder Palestijnen afhangt. Geen Joden (meer) in Jeruzalem klinkt het in ‘Palestina’. Jeruzalem is Islam en Joden moeten oprotten.

Op 24 december 2014 werden de resultaten gepubliceerd van een gezamenlijke Israëlische Palestijnse peiling. Volgend op de recente oorlog in Gaza (Operation Protective Edge) werden Israëliërs en Palestijnen bevraagd hoe ze stonden tegenover een tweestatenoplossing en hun bereidheid om compromissen te sluiten om dat doel te bereiken.

De peiling die werd gehouden tussen 7 en 12 december 2014, zijn de resultaten van het Harry S. Truman Onderzoeksinstituut voor de Bevordering van de Vrede aan de Hebreeuwse Universiteit van Jeruzalem (het Abba Eban Centrum) en anderzijds het Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in Ramallah. Het onderzoek kreeg de steun van de Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah en Jeruzalem.

Wat meteen in deze peiling in het oog springt is dat 71 procent van de Palestijnen zich kant tegen een gedemilitariseerde soevereine Palestijnse staat en eveneens 71 procent van de Palestijnen zich kant om het Joodse Kwartier en de Klaagmuur (Kotel) in Oud-Jeruzalem dat voorbij de Groene Lijn (pre-1967 lijn) ligt, onder Israëlisch bestuur te behouden in een toekomstig vredesverdrag.

Hieronder een beknot overzicht van de resultaten van deze gezamelijke poll.

1. Uiteindelijke grenzen en landruil

Onder Palestijnen: 45% support or strongly support and 54% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to the Palestinian respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2013, when support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 52% and opposition at 48%.

Onder Israëliërs: 41% support and 47% oppose a Palestinian state in the entirety of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip except for several large blocks of settlements in 3% of the West Bank which will be annexed to Israel. Israel will evacuate all other settlements, and the Palestinians will receive in return territory of similar size along the Gaza Strip. In December 2013, 44% of the Israelis supported this component while 48% opposed it.

2. Gedemilitariseerde Palestijnse staat

Onder Palestijnen: 28% support and 71% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise received in December 2013 28% support and opposition reached 71%.

This item receives the lowest level of support by Palestinians, as in previous polls. Unlike the refugees and Jerusalem components, this issue has not received due attention in public discourse, as it should, since it may become a major stumbling block in the efforts to reach a settlement.

Onder Israëliërs:  59% support and 33% oppose this arrangement compared to 60% support and 33% opposition obtained in December 2013.

3. De status van Jeruzalem

Onder Palestijnen: 29% support and 71% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In December 2013, an identical compromise obtained 32% support and 68% opposition.

Onder Israëliërs:  32% support and 59% oppose an arrangement in which the Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem including the old city and the Temple Mount will come under Palestinian sovereignty, the Jewish neighborhoods including the Jewish quarter and the Wailing Wall will come under Israeli sovereignty. East Jerusalem will become the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel. In December 2013, similarly, 37% supported this arrangement and 56% opposed it.

4. De Palestijnse vluchtelingenkwestie

Onder Palestijnen: 40% support and 58% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their “refugeehood” and loss of property. In December 2013, 46% agreed with an identical compromise while 52% opposed it.

Onder Israëliërs: 36% support such an arrangement and 48% oppose it. In December 2013, 39% supported it and 50% opposed.

5. Einde van het conflict

Onder Palestijnen: 61% support and 37% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. In December 2013, 63% supported and 36% opposed this item.

Onder Israëliërs:  64% support and 27% oppose this component in the final status framework. In December 2013, similarly, 66% of the Israelis supported it while 28% opposed it.

6. Veiligheidsakkoorden

Onder Palestijnen: 46% support and 53% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In comparison, in December 2013, 52% of the Palestinians supported this parameter while 48% opposed it.

Onder Israëliërs:  49% support and 37% oppose this arrangement compared to 52% who supported it and 39% who opposed it in December 2012.