De laatste waarschuwing van Israël aan het adres van Iran [Yaakov Lappin]

rouhani-moderateWeg met President Rouhani, het nieuwe ‘gezicht’ van de genocidale Ayatollah Khamenei

De komende weken vertegenwoordigen wellicht een laatste kans voor Iran en de internationale gemeenschap om een afdwingbaar akkoord te bekomen dat Teheran zijn kernwapenprogramma zal ontmantelen, vooraleer Israël tot het besluit komt dat de tijd verstreken is, dat Iran te dicht genaderd is om zijn eerste atoombommen te vervaardigen en dat de tijd is gekomen voor een militaire aanval.

Ondanks het door de Iraanse president Hassan Rouhani goed geplande en misleidende charmeoffensief in de Verenigde Naties vorige week, is tot nog toe geen enkele centrifuge voor uranium-verrijking opgehouden met draaien in de ondergrondse nucleaire installaties in Natanz en Qom. De zwaar water plutonium faciliteit in Arak maakt snel vooruitgang en Iran heeft al genoeg laag-verrijkt uranium vergaard voor de productie van zeven tot negen atoombommen.

De toespraak van premier Benjamin Netanjahoe in de Verenigde Naties van vorige week, waarin hij waarschuwde dat Israël alleen zou optreden tegen Iran als dat nodig is, is een authentieke waarschuwing en heeft een tweeledig doel.

Ten eerste, herintroduceert de toespraak een geloofwaardige militaire dreiging en heeft als doel deze vierkant aan de Islamitische Republiek op te dienen.

Deze aankondiging is belangrijk als afschrikking tegen Iran die sinds augustus aanzienlijk werd afgezwakt, toen president Barack Obama aarzelend terugkwam op zijn belofte van het uitvoeren van een militaire aanval op de bondgenoot van Iran, met name het Syrische regime, over zijn gebruik van chemische wapens om massamoord te plegen op zijn burgerbevolking.

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Wat Iran werkelijk wil…

A diminished threat of military force leaves diplomatic efforts with Iran almost no chance of success: it leaves Iran with virtually no incentive to stop its nuclear progress, despite the painful economic sanctions it faces.

With no military threat, Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy, in which skilled Iranian negotiators would succeed in getting some of the sanctions lifted while giving up very little in return.

Many of America’s allies in the Middle East are very concerned about the lack of deterrence; and Netanyahu, keen to ensure that he has given talks with Iran all possible opportunities before taking matters into his own hands, has placed the military threat firmly back on the table, lest Iran forget that even if the U.S. will not act militarily any time soon, Israel most certainly will if it must.

The second purpose of Netanyahu’s speech was to put the international community on notice regarding the urgency of the situation, and to send the message that even if many in the West have fallen for Iran’s “campaign of smiles,” Israel has not, and if Israeli concerns are neglected, action will be taken.

Should the international community continue to allow Iran to buy more time for its nuclear program, as it has done for more than a decade, after Netanyahu’s warning, it will not be able to respond with surprise when Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites.

Israel’s leadership has long since concluded that a nuclear-armed Iranian regime — a regime that is doctrinally and theologically committed to Israel’s destruction, and that controls a state-sponsored terrorist network, active worldwide — is an outcome many times more dangerous than any military attack.

Israel’s defense establishment recognizes that stringent U.S.-led economic sanctions have forced Iran to the negotiating table. But senior officials, such as Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, have warned that merely arriving for negotiations and offering “sweet talk” is no reason to reward Iran by easing sanctions. On the contrary, easing sanctions now would guarantee that talks will fail.

Similarly, any agreement that allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium under the guise of a civilian energy program will simply enshrine Iran’s position as a nuclear breakout state. Only tangible, verifiable steps that will ensure Iran is pushed back by years from its current progress could be considered an accomplishment.

Against the background of these developments, it is worth bearing in mind that the core of Jerusalem’s defense doctrine holds that Israel cannot depend on any foreign power — even its most trusted ally, the United States — to deal with an existential security threat.

Israel’s clock, which gauges Iranian nuclear progress, ticks faster than that of America’s, due to Israel’s lesser strike capabilities, its smaller size, its closer proximity to Iran, and ultimately, because Israel is the openly and repeatedly declared number one target of Iran’s ambition to destroy it.

If Israel misses its window of opportunity to act, such a lapse would violate a central tenet of its own defense doctrine — that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats — thereby making that option unthinkable. Once Israeli intelligence agencies and senior military command levels conclude that the clock has struck one minute to midnight, no amount of pressure from allies will succeed in dissuading it from acting in self-preservation.

A military strike would not be a goal in itself, as Iran could go right back to reactivating its program, but it would be a last resort designed to accomplish what years of talks could not: to push Iran back from the nuclear brink.

Israel’s strike capabilities remain a closely guarded secret, but according to international media reports, the Israel Air Force has more than 100 F15i and F16i fighter jets that can fly to Iran and return without the need to refuel, as well as, for other jets, advanced midair refueling capabilities that would allow them to strike multiple Iranian targets. According to the reports, Israel also possesses long-range Jericho ground-to-ground missiles.

Any strike, moreover, would be unimaginable without the Israel Defense Force’s advanced electronic warfare units.

In the event that Iran orders its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah to retaliate with tens of thousands of rockets and missiles on the Israeli home front, Israel could respond with devastating air force strikes using new weapons systems, and a lightning ground invasion of southern Lebanon to extinguish quickly the rocket attacks and leave Hezbollah on the ropes.

No one in Israel seeks war, and few dispute that a diplomatic solution that can really freeze the threat from Tehran is the most desired outcome.

But so far, beyond empty gestures, Iran has given no indication that it is prepared to give up its program, and time is running out.

door Yaakov Lappin


Bronnen:

  1. The Gatestone Institute:♦ Israel’s Final Warning on Iran; door Yaakov Lappin [lezen]

Een gedachte over “De laatste waarschuwing van Israël aan het adres van Iran [Yaakov Lappin]

  1. Er is hier in Nederland een spreekwoord dat zegt:Veel beloven en weinig geven doet de dwazen in vreugde leven. Ik hoop dat de EU en de VS die dwazen niet worden,maar ik ben er bang voor.

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